Francis Ngannou moves out, the UFC moves on by Thomas Albano

So, what a wild start to 2023 it’s been for the UFC, huh? And I’m not even considering the in-cage action that took place at UFC 283 just a couple of nights ago. First, we get UFC President Dana White slapping his wife in a viral video from New Year’s and the whole fallout from media silence to his new Power Slap show.

And now, we get something like this that we haven’t seen since the dark ages of this promotion in the late 90s through the early 2000s.

Jon Jones will return to the UFC for the first time in just over three years on March 5, facing Ciryl Gane for the UFC heavyweight championship. That is a championship that was declared vacant after the announcement last week that then-champion Francis Ngannou and the UFC had parted ways.

Now whether you want to call it a “release” or not is one case. According to his interview with Ariel Helwani last week, Ngannou and the UFC have been in negotiations on a new contract for two years, and Ngannou claims he never went public about his free agency (which apparently started in mid-December) out of respect for the UFC. Where the “release” term can come in is that White stated at the UFC Vegas 67 post-fight press conference that they will waive their right to match any offer Ngannou gets, essentially allowing him to walk away and seemingly closing on the Francis Ngannou chapter in the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The point of the matter is that Ngannou and the UFC’s parting of ways, while Ngannou was the heavyweight champion, is a shocking and disappointing ending to this venture. It’s disappointing because we only saw Ngannou defend the title once in the Octagon, and there were more matchups we could have had with him defending the gold – especially a Ngannou vs. Jones encounter.

When Ngannou’s time with the UFC officially ended, it had been nearly three years since we had first been teased about a potential fight with Jones. While the world was wrapping its head around the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Jones – who had just retained the light heavyweight title in controversial circumstances at February’s UFC 247 (something that plagued his 2018-20 title run) – was eyeing a move to heavyweight. Meanwhile, Ngannou was looking for a title shot at blasting through Jairzinho Rozenstruik in May at UFC 249. With negotiations for Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3 up in the air at that point, it seemed like the perfect idea to give both men what they wanted – a tasty fight for both men, as well as the fans, with  No. 1 contendership or an interim title on the line.

But the UFC didn’t go for it in negotiations, frustrating both men. Jones, in fact, asked for his release at one point (which didn’t look good for the UFC when Jorge Masvidal and Conor McGregor were doing the same, Henry Cejudo retired, and Amanda Nunes considered retirement). After a few months, the UFC acquiesced and allowed Jones to vacate the 205-pound title and begin to work on a move to heavyweight. Jones elected to take major time off and put weight on – wanting to do the move correctly. In more recent photos of Jones, he looks like an absolute beast.

But how he would have done against Ngannou? That’s now a “what could have been.” Because the UFC and Ngannou were unable to come to terms on a deal, it is an absolute dropped ball. Jones vs. Ngannou will go up there alongside the likes of Fedor Emenlianenko vs. Brock Lesnar and Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson as matchups that could have been great but never came to reality for the UFC.

A UFC champion leaving the promotion is not something from this era. Randy Couture parted the promotion as heavyweight champion in 1998. Frank Shamrock “retired” as light heavyweight champion in 1999. Jens Pulver and Murilo Bustamante both parted with the UFC in 2002 while, respectively, the lightweight and middleweight champion. B.J. Penn left in 2004 as the welterweight champion. Heck, Couture nearly did it again in 2007-08 as heavyweight champion when he was looking to fight Fedor Emelianenko! (Note: This should also go up there alongside the other three fights as big missed opportunities).

Jones vs. Gane isn’t the matchup people wanted, but it’s still an interesting and stylistic matchup that works as the main event of UFC 285. This past Saturday’s UFC 283 marked the first of four pay-per-views the UFC is offering in a two-month span at the new $80+ price tag. To do something like that, you need to have something that fans are willing to part with their money for – especially with a champion vs. champion superfight in February and Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 in mid-March. Jones’s return is that selling point.

While Jones hasn’t been a member of the “1 million+ pay-per-view buys club,” he is still a megastar that casuals know (for better or worse with his actions outside the cage) and one of the debated G.O.A.T.s in MMA whose numbers do very well. The UFC could use him back. Even if you feel he might have ring rust, look at how Georges St Pierre took four years off before winning the UFC middleweight title at UFC 217.

And that only sparks further questioning on which would be a worse scenario for the promotion – Jones loses to Gane at UFC 285, or Jones beats Gane and then retires. There’s also the possibility Jones face Stipe Miocic (arguably the UFC’s greatest ever at heavyweight [and someone who suddenly has leverage again after Ngannou’s departure]) during International Fight Week before retiring. Yes, Jones signed a new eight-fight deal. But at 35 years old, having not fought for three years, and competed professionally for 15 years now, it’s unrealistic that Jones fights the entire deal out. And that’s not mentioning what could happen if the drug or legal troubles rear their ugly head again.

As far as Ngannou and the failed negotiations go, White claims the UFC was going to make Ngannou the highest-paid heavyweight in the history of the sport. Now whether you want to believe him or not is up to you and your views on the pay structure of the UFC. It should be worth noting that Ngannou claimed in his interview with Helwani that he wanted insurance and sponsorship opportunities for fighters, which he says the UFC rejected. The UFC has long wanted to go away from its day when fighters had sponsors all over their trunks and corner, wanting to not be like NASCAR. As far as insurance goes…I mean go look at the lawsuits that have come up against the UFC over the years (and the current anti-trust one).

And Ngannou also wanted crossover opportunities outside the cage, namely in boxing, like Conor McGregor had when he fought Floyd Mayweather. The UFC, however, did not go for it, and that’s not a surprise. The UFC seems like – with rare exceptions over recent years – to live in its own bubble. If you’re not in the UFC, you don’t matter, because you’re not with the best. And they don’t want to risk being embarrassed with one of their fighters losing as McGregor did against Mayweather, or when Chuck Liddell competed in the 2003 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix.

So on that note, what could be next for Ngannou? Ngannou has eyed boxing over the last year or so, and seeing a beast like Ngannou compete in the ring would be quite the sight. There has been some clamoring about what would happen if Ngannou fought someone like WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury, and Ngannou has said such a fight has interested. Fury even welcomes the opportunity. And imagine the kind of pay-per-view money that could draw, even without any UFC involvement! It might be better than any of Ngannou’s previous paydays in the UFC!

So if these talks for a fight with Derek Chisora play out, and Ngannou wins that and fights Fury (either in a win or loss), there’s some big money opportunity that could await “The Predator.” Of course, he could lose to Chisora, and then everything goes off the rails.

As far as an MMA direction goes, Ngannou’s free agency could be a big opportunity for the PFL and its new pay-per-view superfight division. The PFL seemed over its head when it had the 2022 Championships card on ESPN+ pay-per-view. Now the international expansion is a great venture, and technically you could have had Kayla Harrison vs. Larissa Pacheco’s rivalry continue as the next PPV headliner. But who would buy that?

Now things have taken an interesting turn with Jake Paul. Sure, Paul has caused many eyes (including yours truly) to eye roll with him entering combat sports. But Paul’s deal with the PFL is interesting in that fighters will get 50 percent of the pay-per-view revenue. Paul has run his mouth to White about fighter rights and treatment. Imagine if Ngannou signs with the PFL (and it may not be farfetched considering a family member of his was seen wearing a PFL shirt in a social media posting.

It would be the biggest “put up or shut up” chance for both Paul and the PFL. And for Ngannou, it would be a way to show the rest of his MMA brothers and sisters that there is a way to financial success and fame in the sport without having to need the UFC machine. But it would need to take effort on both ends. However, just right away by signing Ngannou, PFL would have the opportunity to take the title of “World’s No. 2 MMA Promotion” away from Bellator.

Speaking of, Bellator would definitely offer better competition to Ngannou with the names in its heavyweight division. And a fight between Ngannou and current Bellator heavyweight champion Ryan Bader (pending Bader retains the Bellator heavyweight title against Emelianenko in the latter’s retirement fight at Bellator 290 on Feb. 4) would be the closest we get to a dream UFC champion vs. Bellator champion bout.

The downside with Bellator is that they are in a state of flux. Yes, the upcoming debut of Bellator on CBS (the first time a non-UFC promotion will be on network TV since Strikeforce in 2010) is an exciting prospect. But as Helwani reported recently, there is a chance the company could be sold within the next year or so. And Bellator is already on its third broadcasting home or so in the last few years. So would the company be willing to spend the biggest of bucks for Ngannou’s services?

It will be interesting to watch Ngannou’s free agency and next steps in combat. One thing is for sure: If Ngannou plays his cards right, he will have the opportunity to craft a new path of success for fighters and be the innovator for it. If he doesn’t, he may end up back in the UFC under their terms.

Here’s hoping the best for “The Predator”!