The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 0% CHANCE of Winning the NL Pennant By: Hank Indictor
Over the past decade, The Los Angeles Dodgers have become a consistency model. Since 2013, they've made the playoffs every season and averaged at least 92 wins. If they win 100 games this year, it'll be the 5th time in the last seven seasons in which they've reached that win total. And that's not even getting into their high payroll. But only once have they won a World Series in that timespan (their only victory since 1988 and one that came in the COVID-shortened 2020 season), and several times, they've choked away plenty of opportunities to win more rings. The Dodgers could have the best chance at preventing the juggernaut Atlanta Braves from reaching the Fall Classic. However, I'm here to put that logic to rest. If you watched my most recent episode of Hitting for the Cycle, I said that the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 0% chance of reaching the World Series. And here I will explain why.
The Dodgers lineup is fantastic. There is no debate here. It's also a big reason why they've won 87 games as of this writing and could get to 100 if they finish the end of the season strong. Mookie Betts has a strong case for MVP, as he's currently sporting a .312 Batting Average with a slash line of .410/.604/1.014. In addition, barring a monumental slump, he will undoubtedly exceed 40 home runs and 100 RBIs and will likely win his 7th Gold Glove and 6th Silver Slugger Award. In addition, Freddie Freeman is living up to his contract as he is 2nd in the NL Lead with a .336 Batting Average. Other key players in the lineup include James Outman, Chris Taylor, Will Smith, and J.D. Martinez, to name a few. In other words, pitchers will have to be careful come October. So why am I this confident that the Dodgers will not be participating in the Fall Classic? Here are my reasons in no particular order
Dave Roberts: The numbers will argue that he's a great manager and the most successful one they've had since Tommy Lasorda. After all, he's won 3 Pennants and 1 World Series! He also has yet to miss the playoffs. But he's also been responsible for several playoff failures, such as over-reliance on the wrong relief pitchers (cough cough, Ryan Madson in 2018), pulling his starters too early (cough cough, Tyler Anderson), and various wacky lineup changes. In other words, he doesn't have a feel for managing. Sounds like a certain Yankee manager if you ask me. Granted, it's not entirely his fault because he's not responsible for swinging a bat (at least not since he retired years ago) and throwing pitches. But managing can always be a key factor, and if, other than after a 60-game Regular Season, his name gets constantly included in the discussion, then that's a trend. And knowing him, he may very well find a way to prevent them from getting to the NLCS. But again, he can't be the only scapegoat here.
The Dodgers lineup: Yes, I talked about how great it is. But it's important to remember that in the Regular Season, the Dodgers can feast on inferior pitching staffs and mash their way to 95-100 wins. The problem is in the playoffs that's where the competition gets better. All of a sudden, you remember that you can't always rely on the big hit and that small ball is necessary to win, and time and time again, we've seen the Dodgers strike out and fail to capitalize when the situation calls for it. Gee, as a Yankees fan, I've never seen THAT before! And I still need to get to their potential opponents. But first, let me get back to the pitching.
Pitching compared to the rest of the league: I'm going to be blunt here. The Dodgers rotation, at best, is MID! Yes, they still have Clayton Kershaw, but this differs from the prime Kershaw we're discussing here. Sure, he could help them come playoff time, but we all know his track record is up and down. Bobby Miller is okay, but he needs to be on his A-Game come the postseason. But as for Ryan Yarborough and Lance Lynn? Ohhhh, shiver me, timbers. I'm shaking in my boots to face these guys…NOT! Put them up against a Braves lineup that's just as good with a pitching staff consisting of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Bryce Elder, and I promise you it won't end well! But what about the other teams, you ask? The Brewers could steal a game or 2 with Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta. The Cubs lineup has been a surprise this year, and Justin Steele has helped, too, with Cy Young-like numbers. If they are in a short series with either team, things could get dicey if they aren't careful. Oh, and if the Dodgers play the Phillies, I'm willing to bet my house on Philadelphia. Don't disrespect the Phillies (but that's a blog for a different day). And lastly, I remember the "good old days" of 2004-07 with Yankees lineups that consisted of guys like Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, A-Rod, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Gary Sheffield, and Robinson Cano, to name a few. Haven't we learned from those teams that when you rely on such a lineup when there are only 1-2 reliable starters (Mike Mussina and or Chien-Ming Wang) and then guys like Jaret Wright, Javy Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, AARP Kevin Brown, and AARP Randy Johnson that it doesn't work? Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it! And not for nothing, but even if Julio Urias didn't decide to be a scumbag and put his hands on a woman (for a second time), I'd still wouldn't put money on the Dodgers especially since they won't be getting Walker Buehler back any time soon.
Andrew Friedman: I'll give him credit where credit is due. He's built a tremendous minor-league system and knows how to develop talent. And if his teams are consistently in the mix for title contenders, he's doing something right. However, I see similarities between him and Brian Cashman in his track record of aggressiveness (or lack thereof). The only impactful move I can give him credit for is the Mookie Betts trade since they fleeced the Red Sox there. Still, look at this past trade deadline. Imagine settling on Lance Lynn and Ryan Yarborough at the deadline after having to go through washed-up Noah Syndergaard in your rotation when you could've improved it by getting Justin Verlander or being more aggressive in getting Eduardo Rodriguez to waive his no-move clause. YUCK! And this is far from the first blunder Friedman has made. Remember when he settled on washed-up Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley? How about when he traded Adrian Gonzalez for Matt Kemp with no real reason? I mentioned Ryan Madson, and he's one of several average relief pitchers he traded for in the past. Oh, and who can forget getting Josh Fields for…Yordan Alvarez? And even when he went out and got rentals like Trea Turner, Manny Machado, Max Scherzer, and Yu Darvish, he never lifted a finger to keep them when they didn't win. It's because, like Cashman, he is a prospect hoarder and often afraid to take risks. And considering that mega-market teams employ both morons, that makes it less excusable for them. Andrew Friedman is an overrated GM. There I said it! And I stand by it!
If this post and my Hitting for the Cycle comment age like sour milk, I'll admit I'm wrong and suffer the consequences. But with that being said, if I were the type of person willing to gamble (which I don't condone for the record), I'd bet my house that the Dodgers will fail yet again and cling on to their 2020 trophy! BOOK IT!!