UFC 304 Preview and Predictions By Brett Cagle
(C.) Leon Edwards (22-3) vs. #1 Belal Muhammad (23-3)
The main event of UFC 304 features a Welterweight showdown between English champion Leon Edwards and streaking contender Belal Muhammad. Edwards dethroned longtime champion Kamaru Usman and also defeated Colby Covington in his last contest. Muhammad is riding a nine-fight wins streak into this matchup and holds wins over Vicente Luque, Gilbert Burns, and Sean Brady. Oddsmakers are currently favoring Edwards who is a (-250) betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Muhammad will need to get this fight to the ground and may look for takedowns early. If Edwards can keep the fight standing he should find success. Muhammad is landing 1.98 takedowns per fight. I expect Edwards to make a statement in front of his native fans.
Prediction: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO
(IC) Tom Aspinall (14-3) vs. Curtis Blaydes (18-4)
The co-main event is a heavyweight title fight between interim champion Tom Aspinall and perennial contender Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall and Blaydes previously met in a contest that ended in injury. Aspinall blew his knee out on a low leg kick, requiring surgery and missing a year of competition. Aspinall is a generational talent who can finish fights standing or on the ground. In his last fight, Aspinall knocked out Russian powerhouse Sergei Pavlovich, earning him the interim title.
Although Blaydes technically holds a TKO win over Aspinall, he enters this contest as a (+315) betting underdog. Blaydes has power in his hands and is a former collegiate wrestler. Aspinall has elite speed and movement for a heavyweight. I think Aspinall will be able to defend Blaydes's takedowns, forcing the wrestler to stand and trade. The winner of this fight will face Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic for the undisputed heavyweight championship.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO
King Green (32-15) vs Paddy Pimblett (21-3)
UFC veteran King Green (formerly Bobby Green) will try to end the hype train that is English fan favorite Paddy Pimblett. Green is an athletic trash-talker who has over 20 fights in the UFC. Pimblett will compete in front of an electric hometown crowd, showing him massive support. Pimblett is extremely talented on the ground and will hold a grappling advantage in this contest. Green has 11 wins by knockout and just picked up an impressive win over Jim Miller at UFC 300.
Pimblett is currently a slight betting underdog at online sportsbooks (+105). Green was viscously stopped by Jalin Turner last December but will be the toughest opponent Paddy “The Baddy” has faced in his young UFC career.
Prediction: Paddy Pimblett by Decision