UFC Vegas 96 Preview And Predictions By Tom Albano

Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho

Caio Borralho has been on quite the rise since competing on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, which saw him defeat highly-touted prospect (and current Bellator fighter) Aaron Jeffery and quickly finish Jesse Murray. Since entering the UFC, Borralho is 6-0, a streak that has included finishes of Paul Craig and Michal Oleksiejczuk. And now he gets the biggest opportunity of his career as he takes on former title challenger Jared Cannonier. Cannonier is 2-2 in his last four, getting controversially stopped by Nassourdine Imavov in Louisville a couple of months ago. Borralho is the betting favorite in this fight (-245 per FanDuel).

Borralho is greatly skilled when it comes to his defensive work and grappling. That said, Cannonier is definitely a big step up in competition compared to Borralho’s last opponent in Craig. Cannonier is known for his striking and the power he lands – having set a historical performance last year against Marvin Vettori – and he definitely has a chip on his shoulder after the controversial loss to Imavov. Borralho needs to take this fight to the ground, but Cannonier may be able to hold his own against takedown attempts. Cannonier may be 40, but he has the main event experience. Borralho, meanwhile, has never gone past three rounds before, so it will be interesting to see what his tank looks like should we get to main event-round territory.

I’m not ready to count out Cannonier just yet, and those +186 odds look good.

Prediction: Cannonier via decision

TUF Middleweight Final: Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin

Ryan Loder was the sole middleweight from Team Shevchenko to make it past the first round and the only Team Shevchenko member in the Finale fights. Representing the USA, the 6-1 Loder showed an ability to overcome adversity as a youth and found plenty of success on the wrestling mat while competing for promotions like United Fight League and Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat. Loder makes it to the Finale off a quick submission of Tom Theocharis and a unanimous decision over Omran Chaaban.

At 10-3, meanwhile, Switzerland’s Robert Valentin has been touted by UFC CEO Dana White as having the most dominant run of any TUF competitor. Valentin was one of the more experienced combatants during this TUF season, picking up finishes in all but one of his fights while competing on the regional scene in promotions such as Ares FC and Lions FC. Valentin demonstrated explosive power in his first-round knockout of Giannis Bachar (approximately 15 seconds) and resiliency and grappling ability in his first-round submission of Paddy McCorry on the show.

Loder’s strategy and best shot of winning this fight will be to take this fight to the ground. But if you look at the overall packages of the two, Valentin is just too good all around compared to his TUF 32 competition. If you’ve watched the season, you would have seen Valentin take on a leadership role as a member of Team Grasso, and White has had praise for Valentin on more than one occasion. Combine that with the oddsmakers pegging Valentin as a -180 favorite, and we may be looking at Valentin leaving an impact as he emphatically enters the UFC and becomes this season’s middleweight Ultimate Fighter.

Prediction: Valentin via first-round KO/TKO

TUF Featherweight Final: Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos

Kaan Ofli came into the TUF season as perhaps the most highly touted of the eight featherweight contestants. Ofli, representing Australia, is 11-2-1 and has made a name for himself on the regional scene. Ofli has competed for Brave CF, UAE Warriors, Eternal MMA and Hex Fight Series (where he became featherweight champion). Though Ofli is known to be a pressuring striker, he appears to have strong grappling capabilities as well, with five of his 11 victories coming via submission, all by choke. Ofli enters the final off victories over two other impressive names in Nathan Fletcher (via decision) and Roedie Roets (via first-round submission).

Brazil’s Mairon Santos, meanwhile, is the other name that can make the case as the most experienced and highly-touted name from that TUF division. Santos himself is a pressuring striker, and at just 24 years old, he’s continuing to develop himself as he has through his time with promotions such as LFA and Shooto Brazil. Santos is 13-1 and his last official fight saw him defeated Rafael Barbosa in the co-main event of LFA 155 last year. Santos secured his spot in this finale fight through a split-decision win over Edwin Cooper Jr. and a unanimous decision win over Guillermo Torres. It should be noted Torres was a last-minute replacement for Zygimantas Ramaska after Ramaska was not cleared by the Nevada State Athletic Commission and that Santos originally missed weight for the fight.

While the TUF middleweight finale seems to be going one way, this fight’s got people split. And this fight probably is a big coin flip. Who can bring more pressure with their striking? Will Ofli look to take the fight to the ground and pressure there? It’s a close call, but I’ll stick with the -200 favorite in Santos.

Prediction: Santos via decision